Modeling The Effect of Contaminated Object, Vaccination and Treatment on The Diseases Epidemiology

In this paper, the effect of contaminated objects on a SIRS Model with vaccination and hospitalization compartments is modeled. Positivity and boundedness properties of the solutions of model are proved, basic reproduction number of the model is founded through criteria which make the eigenvalues of the Jacobean matrix at the disease-free equilibrium point, negative. Globally stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium point is proved when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. The existence, uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium point is investigated when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Parameter values regarding to spreading covid-19 in Kurdistan region are estimated. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number is carried out. © 2022 Production by the University of Garmian. This is an open access article under the LICENSE.

Identifying key critical model parameters in spreading of COVID-19 pandemic

The spreading of COVID-19 has been considered a worldwide issue, and many global efforts have been suggested. Suggested control strategies to minimize the impact of the disease have effectively worked with computational simulations and mathematical models. Model critical transmissions and sensitivities are also key elements to study this pandemic more widely. This work reviews and discusses susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to predict the spreading of this disease. Accordingly, the basic reproduction number and its parameter elasticity are considered at the equilibrium points. Furthermore, the real data of confirmed cases in the Kurdistan region of Iraq are used in estimating model parameters and model validating. Computational model results provide some important model improvements and suggest control strategies. Firstly, the model population states have different model dynamics using the estimated parameters and the initial values. Another result is that almost all model states are sensitive to the model parameters at different levels. Interestingly, contact rate, transition rate from exposed class to the infected class and natural recovery rate are the most important controllable parameters to reduce the basic reproduction number R o , and they become the model critical parameters. More interestingly, computational results for the real data provide that the basic reproduction number in the Kurdistan Region was about 1.28, which is greater than unity. This means that the new coronavirus still has a high potential to spread among individuals, and it will require more interventions and new strategies to control this disease further.